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Archive for April, 2012

BCE

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Rigor yes, but not if it is to break the European economy. This is a real bomb that Mario Draghi, chairman of the ECB, just lit: “Today, what I have in mind is the need for growth pact, he released Wednesday at a hearing before Parliament. We have a budget pact (…), but we must go back and make a pact for growth. ”

The head of the ECB continues to advocate the “flexibility” of labor and good management. But the change of priority, professed by the herald of an institution known for its orthodoxy, is of course the honey Francois Hollande.

The Socialist candidate wants to reduce the collective discipline. Nicolas Sarkozy also spoke of growth. But there is no question for the president to overrule a treaty on budget he controlled himself with Angela Merkel.

Beyond the French countryside, the little phrase from Mario Draghi adds to the voice of Christine Lagarde, the IMF, and Timothy Geithner, U.S. Treasury. To varying degrees, all three now wish that Europe differs from budget cuts in favor of a stimulation of growth yet to be defined.

Germany, it remains clinging to return to equilibrium, under penalty. Berlin immediately launched against a fire, by extolling the virtues of rigor. “Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms courageous labor market pay. This is an important message to our partners in Europe, “said Minister of Economy, Philipp Rösler, announcing his country for a 0.7% growth this year and 1.6% in 2013, after 3% in 2011.

Still, the French president could change the balance of power. Especially as Italy, the Netherlands and Spain in particular find themselves confronted with politically impossible budgetary sacrifices. In short, four of the five largest economies of the euro would be willing to release the clamp.

Loosen the grip on public finances
According to exclusive information obtained by Le Figaro, the discussion is mature enough that notes already circulating between Brussels, Frankfurt and various European capitals. The first inflection is on the record the hottest: Spain and its banks, whose fragility give cold sweats in the markets, at the risk of the euro falter again.

This is to prepare and, when appropriate, to conduct an emergency rescue in Europe. The need to recapitalize Spanish is unofficially estimated at 50 billion euros. A scenario is appealing to the relief fund of the euro (EFSF and / or SS) in a simplified and unique: the loans would come with conditions minimized, making wince in Berlin and The Hague.

The second measure, more generally, is to loosen all the screws on public finances, so as not to strangle what remains of activity. Without displaying it officially, they are letting slip the goal of reducing the budget deficit, now absolutely set at 3% in 2013 to almost all EU countries, including France.

“The course could have been required if growth and world trade were to go, said a minister aware of the discussion. But for countries burdened by recession and unemployment, it became untenable. “Exit So, next year, what Eurocrats call the Maastricht target, mechanical step toward the golden rule and the return to wanted a balanced budget by Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy.

Mario Draghi has implicitly conceded by saying disappointed that the massive injection of liquidity by the ECB launched did not use more to the real economy. The Mint “can not compensate the lack of demand,” he admits. The diagnosis is made plain, and let Does it mean, it’s time to change the prescription.

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April 27th, 2012 at 1:10 am

Posted in เศรษฐกิจ

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Europe

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In a letter, the famous financier urges Europe to change its destructive policies.
George Soros is not only a financier advised, it is also a thinker. In a note posted on his blog, he believes that Europe must come out of the rut in which it lies. His main argument is that the Bundesbank is in error. He accuses the institution to refuse further monetary expansion. In parallel, the German Central Bank began to restrict credit Rhine while the whole of Europe needs the Germans consume.

George Soros believes that prior approval of expenditures of each country is required. In parallel, he considers it important that the ECB buys bonds in Europe. This would be accompanied by a mechanism that states avoid getting into debt beyond 60% of GDP.

A tax package, rewarding the good behavior of pupils, would ensure that members maintain good discipline.

The financier also proposes that all Member States refinance their debt at the same rate of interest to ensure that differences in competitiveness are too strong.

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April 13th, 2012 at 1:02 am

Posted in general,เศรษฐกิจ

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QE3…..

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By showing through the minutes of its committee of capital markets that it saw no reason to perform a new tranche of quantitative easing and that there would be no QE3, the Federal Reserve sends a strong signal .

Since September, she had maintained economic actors, and especially the financial uncertainty in the point that Wall Street had come to believe. This announcement has not been fun and there was a 2% drop in the Dow Jones which contrasted with the enthusiasm of the first quarter. There is not a big deal.

The Fed’s balance sheet reached 2,860 billion, up 10% in one year. Gradually, its portfolio of mortgage bonds is reduced and its balance sheet is dominated by the U.S. Treasury, for more than half. For comparison, the European Central Bank has a balance of $ 4 000 billion. For one as for the other, balance sheet size is excessive, but the Fed has stabilized while the ECB has increased by 50% in a few months to fund the banks. It is therefore important that both of the other limit its interventions to avoid aggravating the risk involved in the size of their balance sheets.

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April 7th, 2012 at 1:43 am

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QE3

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The leaders of the U.S. central bank continue to expect growth “moderate” in 2012 but did not foresee more new measures to support the economy.
The prospect of new measures to support the U.S. economy (and especially a QE3, a third phase of quantitative easing) away. According to the minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Reserve, only two members of the Monetary Policy Committee in fact believe that these measures may be needed if the economy weakens or if inflation remains at a low level for an extended period. At the January meeting, they were more likely to have this position.

“The Fed minutes came the idea that stifle the very principle of a” QE3 “was still relevant,” said Clark Yingst, chief analyst at Joseph Gunnar & Co. The Federal Reserve has already launched twoprogram of monetary easing (“quantitative easing”) to exit the U.S. economy from recession in which it was plunged in late 2007 and mid-2009.

Despite the distances taken with a possible third such program, the Fed officials remain cautious about the prospects of the U.S. economy. They see “overall” the pursuit of growth “moderate” this year for the world’s largest economy. The Fed had decided at that meeting to maintain the status quo.Its interest rate is locked between 0% and 0.25% since December 2008, and has launched several injections of liquidity into the financial system with mixed results.

To believe the minutes, most Fed officials cautiously welcomed the fall in unemployment, down from 9.1% in August to 8.3% in February.”Almost all the members considered as the unemployment rate still high compared to levels they consider consistent with the mission of the Committee in the long term”, which is to achieve the level of highest employment, stressed the Fed.

But the prospects of unemployment was some discord. “A number of participants felt that the labor market currently exhibited a significant under-use. To support this view, various indicators were cited, including working time (…), the high number of people working part time for economic reasons, and the low ratio of vacancies relative to unemployment, “added the central bank.

“Others noted polls suggesting new solid gains ahead for employment”, while a minority thought is that the U.S. economy “could be much closer to its potential than previously thought”, or that the economy had less potential since the recession of 2007-2009.

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April 5th, 2012 at 11:41 pm

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Euro Tax

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The tax on financial transactions will she emerge in Europe? At the current stage of discussions, this perspective continues to move away, despite support ultra-majority of MEPs and the willingness of Germany and France to implement it.
Since the European Commission proposed in September a bill to tax financial products in Europe from 0.1% on stocks and bonds, and 0.01% for derivatives, the debate within 27 member states does not change much, many countries are hiding behind the fierce opposition of the British to torpedo the proposal. In charge of the rotating presidency of the EU, Denmark, led by a coalition of center-left, is itself very little in favor of this tax, which support the franc nine countries, mostly conservative …
The Danish Minister of Economy, Margrethe Vestager, and prefers to praise the merits of a tax based on payroll banks. To avoid getting bogged down complete, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has tried Saturday at the meeting of European finance ministers in Copenhagen to propose another way to move forward on the subject. He suggests moving in stages. Since no one knows exactly how taxing all financial products traded, it suggests to begin by studying a tax that would apply only to actions. According to the German Minister, would allow the Twenty-September to demonstrate the willingness of States to involve the financial sector to national economic solidarity, while giving yourself more time to gradually expand the scope the tax as soon as the technical issues will be lifted.
France has just passed a 0.1% tax on purchases of shares of French companies with more than 1 billion euros capitalization. In England, a “stamp duty” strikes at 0.5% the stock, which are also tax in Ireland up to 1%. In Germany, however, no tax is still affecting the exchange of shares.

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April 1st, 2012 at 12:11 am

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