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Archive for November, 2012

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This is a recurring theme. The theme of the rise of China and the danger it poses to the U.S. economy and jobs has been extensively reworked by U.S. presidential candidates. Enough for Barack Obama, just re-elected, said his office will largely under the sign of Asia.
Yet it is a coincidence that, just relocated to the White House, the president took the lead from the Asian continent to attend the summit of the ASEAN. It is also a chance that he did not this time, respected tradition that any trip to Asia by a U.S. president necessarily begins with a stop in Japan. On the campaign trail and a few weeks of an election that could put the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) in power, Tokyo was not ready for such a visit.
Regardless, the White House had a specific purpose, to show that the United States was back in the Asian region. Symbols forcefully recalled during a whirlwind trip.
With a stop for a few hours in Burma, Barack Obama marked the spirits by taking an example of a country initiating its transformation policy. The military junta was replaced in March 2011, a former military government that has since multiplied reforms. Advantage of these changes, Obama distributed satisfecits guests who do not want to be dominated today in Beijing.
This is another meaning of the American message. When the Burmese authorities are seeking to expand their relations with the outside world, Washington’s support to counterbalance the weight of its neighbor is necessarily cumbersome welcome to the regime of Thein Sein, the Burmese counterpart Barack Obama.
The American approach to a third dimension, more subliminally. Although they welcomed the new Chinese team in power and have hosted on their soil Xi Jinping, Hu future, the United States has hardly hide their hope that regime change.
To this end, the example of Burma, who lived for decades under the yoke of an authoritarian regime, but has a shift towards democracy, is instructive. Even if we are still far from, some are in the organization of elections to a model which Washington would like to see soft … China. In addition, the rehabilitation of Aung San Suu Kyi, the flagship history of democracy in Burma, the question of human rights and prefigures to some this might happen to the Dalai Lama.
These early signals from the U.S. strategy can also be installed at the multilateral level in a region where economic engine is China. It passes through the Transpacific Partnership (TPP), an exclusive club comprising, besides the United States, the best students in the Asia-Pacific region. Washington wants to make his arm to extend its economic influence. Proposing to Thailand to become the 12th member of the United States implicitly remind them they wish to also check the rules of regional integration. And would then force the Chinese to comply.
Hope to hold sway over its Chinese rival, the American giant could not hope for a better combination of factors. Not only is he came to participate in the meeting of the ASEAN countries and their heads of state, but it was served by the agenda. Member States intend to sound the alarm about Beijing’s intransigence in multiple maritime conflicts it has with its neighbors. To control strings of islands, the Chinese cross swords with South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and of course Japan. With the latter, the relationship has never been degraded. In light of this situation, speech in Washington seeking to rebalance the forces in Asia, could only be heard.
To him now to counterbalance Chinese power based on its traditional ally, Japan. This coalition is not without risks. Beijing is engaged for several years in an extensive program to modernize its army and its navy. Over the past year, Americans also reinforce their military presence. After 250 marines stationed in Australia, he plans to transfer 60% of the buildings in the U.S. Navy in Asia by 2020. Now, the port of Singapore is sized to accommodate U.S. nuclear aircraft carrier. If Beijing does everything to keep the Americans of his ribs, Washington wants instead come across as close as possible.
The real risk today is to attend a clash between Chinese and Japanese navies. By the interplay of security agreements Washington could be forced to wear hand to his ally. A situation that does not consider the U.S. administration, even if it considers that zero risk does not exist.
Hence the importance to remember that Asia is not alone in dealing with China, pushing Beijing to establish a code of conduct with its neighbors while playing escalation.

Written by chaiyan00

November 28th, 2012 at 3:14 pm

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EU ZONE

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The OECD is concerned for the euro area, the GDP decline by a further 0.1% next year against 2% growth in the United States. The OECD proposes to ease the austerity measures in the short term.

The euro zone will remain in recession in 2013, the OECD says. “The crisis in the euro zone is still a threat to the global economy,” said Secretary General of the OECD Angel Gurria.

GDP will fall by 0.1% next year, after 0.4% in 2012. Recovery is not expected before the end of 2013. The unemployment rate continues to rise 11.1% in 2012 to 11.9% in 2013 and 12% in 2014. This is the main factor recessive on the Old Continent.

In France, growth in 2013 will be 0.3% in 2013 against 0.6% in Germany. French growth should reach 1.3% in 2014 and 1.9% in Germany.

Globally, the outlook has “deteriorated further,” says the OECD. The recovery is “uneven and hesitant” laments Angel Gurria. The eurozone is not the only threat to the global economy. “If nothing is done about the U.S. budget wall, there will be a recession,” a “terrible scenario.”

But this is not the main scenario for the OECD expects growth of 2% in the United States next year, after 2.2% in 2012. Japan will grow by 0.7%.

It is Europe’s most worries the international organization. “In the current context, very vulnerable, any bad news could undermine confidence and threaten growth ‘fears Angel Gurria.

OECD welcomes relief from the burden of Greek debt intrevenu the night in Brussels. It appaudit structural reforms in Italy and Spain, as well as fiscal union and bank construction.

But the OECD is concerned that too harsh austerity measures that inflicted the euro area short-term. And suggests that the ECB lowered its interest rates still remaining at 0.75% against 0.25% in the United States.

Written by chaiyan00

November 27th, 2012 at 8:52 pm

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