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Archive for December, 2012

Fiscal cliff

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The middle classes are the first affected by austerity. Defense, it can take several months to take painful measures.

In cases where Washington fails to find a budget agreement, the major deadlines that await Americans in the coming months:
January 1st. U.S. debt will exceed the level authorized by Congress (16,400 billion). The White House will draw 200 billion in government funds to take a few more weeks, probably until March.
January 2. The law provides for allocations remove 2 million long-term unemployed who are no longer entitled to regional aid, depend entirely on the generosity of the federal government. Allowances are paid every two weeks, they will be penalized in the early days of January.
January 3. The new Congress is taking place. If no agreement is reached before the 1st January, it certainly will attempt to reach a new compromise on this occasion. Priority will be to restore tax exemptions for the 98% of Americans earning less than $ 250,000.
January 4. Some 120 million Americans will also lose the benefit of the two points of exemption from social security offered to them for two years. Workers are paid every other Friday, they will be affected from 4 or January 11. They will lose $ 40 on average on their payroll, and thus about twice each month.
February. The defense, which has lost 10% of its loans, which has taken several weeks to take painful measures. Layoffs and forced permissions could be postponed until February, even in the spring, the ministry said.
March 1. The law provides for the abolition of tax exemptions 200000000000 proposed to the Americans for ten years. Tax services will take several weeks to adapt their software. Tax refunds for 2012 will therefore be postponed for several weeks, on 1 March at the earliest.
March. If parliamentarians are not quickly debt ceiling, the U.S. will be in default in March, warned the Treasury. The United States would then have no right to borrow on the markets. And then they would stop paying their employees and pay benefits.

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December 28th, 2012 at 3:33 am

Fiscal cliff

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Since last week, U.S. administrations prepare their employees to worst case scenario. The Minister of Defense, Leon Panetta, has sent a letter to the military, indicating that there would certainly be necessary permissions forced to cope with budget cuts. The army has reason to be worried if Republicans and Democrats can not agree until next Monday, it will undergo a cutting-credits of 10% or $ 50 billion, in 2013. Effects will however not immediate: “It is more of a slope than a cliff budget,” cautions and Todd Harrison, a defense expert at Washington.
Most orders weapons are already paid for the next year, they would not be canceled. Layoffs and permissions enforced, in turn, may be delayed until spring. In the meantime, the military can hope that Congress fixes it and restore some of their credits. On Christmas Eve, Treasury officials have also received a letter from their employer: “It may be that we are forced to resort to forced leave or other actions” were warned Thursday Neal Wolin, the Deputy Treasury Secretary. Layoffs are still taboo, but the public will be forced to resort to actually decline if spending $ 100 billion next year.
The situation may be more brutal for 2 million long-term unemployed who no longer qualify for regional allocations depend entirely on the generosity of the state. The “fiscal cliff” plans to remove these benefits, established temporarily in 2008. Allowances are paid every two weeks, unemployed furthest from employment would therefore be penalized by mid-January.

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December 25th, 2012 at 4:47 pm

Fiscal cliff

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A few days before the deadline, the Republican Congress announced Tuesday, December 18 they would file a law – a kind of “plan B” – reprising their budget proposals, in order to put pressure on President Barack Obama and precipitate an agreement before the end of the year.
A 14-day “Wall budget” – which automatically trigger tax hikes and spending cuts if no agreement is reached – the President of the House of Representatives, John Boehner, has announced that the Republicans unilaterally would introduce a bill raising taxes for millionaires only from 1 January. This position is a compromise compared to its earlier refusal to increase the tax schedule for all Americans. Barack Obama but requires that the threshold is $ 400 000, not a million, after also revised its position as it had previously set this threshold to $ 250 000.

The White House quickly rejected the plan Republican, saying he had no chance of passing the Senate, controlled by Democrats. Barack Obama “is not ready to accept an agreement that does not require enough taxes from the richest, and the reverse puts the burden on the middle class and seniors,” said spokesman for the White House, Jay Carney, in a statement.

The Republican plan should be submitted to a vote Thursday in the House of Representatives, where the Republican majority think have the number of votes needed for its adoption.

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December 19th, 2012 at 8:39 pm

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ECB

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What are the banks and the ECB monitor? All EU countries are involved? Apply when the new device? Back on the main points of the agreement reached Thursday in the early hours of the day.

The 27 States of the European Union have come in the night from Wednesday to Thursday a unanimous agreement on the single European bank supervision, the first step of the banking union desired by European leaders attempt to prevent new crises.

• All banks be supervised at European level?

Direct supervision of institutions by the European Central Bank (ECB) to intervene banks that have more than 30 billion euros of assets or who weigh more than 20% of GDP the country of origin (unless their assets are less 5 billion euros) or who have a European aid program. Unless “special circumstances”, the ECB will monitor all cases in the three main institutions of each State participating in the mechanism. In total, the French Finance Minister, Pierre Moscovici, said the number of banks supervised directly by the ECB between 150 and 200.

Institutions that do not fit into these categories remain monitored by their national supervisor. The ECB may, however, take control of them in each case if it deems necessary, make recommendations and impose financial penalties for non-compliance with prudential standards. This rule reflects the compromise between Berlin, which did not want its smaller regional banks and savings banks fall under the direct supervision of the ECB, and Paris insisted that the Frankfurt institution has a right to inspect all banks without exception.

• All European countries are covered?

This mechanism relates, in a first step, the countries of the euro area should then be joined by several others. In the end, only the United Kingdom, Sweden and the Czech Republic said they did not want to participate immediately.

• Who will supervise?

Supervisory Board a newly created will be housed within the ECB, and take important decisions concerning banking supervision. It will be composed of representatives from 17 national supervisors, four members of the ECB, a president and a vice-president. To facilitate the operation of the institution, operational decisions are made by a steering committee tightened around only a few members who will be subject to rotation, thus officially no permanent seat for large countries.

• When the mechanism is he running?

The mechanism not enter phased in during 2013, as was originally planned, but will be operational at once on 1 March 2014. Although Germany had made its implementation prior to the recapitalization of troubled banks directly by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), France has assured that it would not be necessary to wait for 2014. The ECB may now, in each case, directly supervise a bank for direct recapitalization.

• How to separate banking supervision and monetary policy of the ECB?

Currently, the Board of Governors in direct charge of monetary policy in the euro area. But it is also he who, in accordance with European Treaty, shall validate all major decisions taken by the Supervisory Board who receive non-member countries. To ensure separation between monetary policy and supervision, States have agreed on the establishment of an independent committee to decide in the last instance in the case of objection the Board of Governors on a decision of the Supervisory Board.

• What role for the European Banking Authority?

The European Banking Authority (EBA), regulatory body based in London and in which all sit Twenty-Seven, currently has very significant powers to the European level. Both groups are therefore: Member States of the Union Bank and others. According to the agreement reached last night for a binding decision is adopted in the EBA, a majority will emerge within each of these groups. In cases where a country would oppose a decision of the EBA, a committee will decide. It will consist of two representatives from each group, supplemented by the President of the EBA.

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December 13th, 2012 at 4:19 pm

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