Global growth is expected to reach 3.5% this year, according to new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. The eurozone is still mired in crisis.
IMF Headquarters – DR
“If the crisis risks do not materialize and if the financial situation continues to improve, global growth could be stronger than expected.” The updated today by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of its global economic outlook is subject to these stringent conditions. This has not prevented the multilateral institution to further lower its forecasts compared to the month of October. So this year, global GDP growth is expected at 3.5% against 3.6% expected again in the fall. For next year, it is mentioned 4.1% rather than 4.2%. As in October, it is true that the IMF is particularly concerned about the situation of the euro area is expected to experience an overall second year of recession with a GDP decline of 0.2%. This poor performance is primarily due to the recession in the countries of southern Europe. As noted by the funds in these countries’ activity was more depressed than expected. ” And under these conditions, the economic heart of the country has been affected area. France is thus credited to the current year, a meager increase of 0.3% of its GDP, making Germany little better with 0.6%. For multilateral institution, several factors are at the origin of this depression. On the one hand, the decline in interest rates paid by the Member States has not passed on the borrowing requirements of the private sector. On the other hand, the Fund regret the continuing uncertainty surrounding the resolution of the European crisis. Clearly, the decisions taken at the European political level (union bank implementation of MES and buybacks of debt by the European Central Bank …) slow to materialize on a practical level.
The American situation is more favorable. Growth is expected to average 2% this year before to rise to 3% in 2014. The lull observed on financial markets and the housing market downturn should encourage U.S. consumer spending in the coming months. This trend is however conditional upon an agreement between congressional Republicans and Democrats to avoid a drastic reduction and some automatic spending. The IMF is optimistic for growth in emerging markets expected to average 5.5% this year. Even if the lack of activity observed in industrialized countries would weigh on business performance