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Archive for January, 2013

FMI

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Global growth is expected to reach 3.5% this year, according to new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. The eurozone is still mired in crisis.

IMF Headquarters – DR
“If the crisis risks do not materialize and if the financial situation continues to improve, global growth could be stronger than expected.” The updated today by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of its global economic outlook is subject to these stringent conditions. This has not prevented the multilateral institution to further lower its forecasts compared to the month of October. So this year, global GDP growth is expected at 3.5% against 3.6% expected again in the fall. For next year, it is mentioned 4.1% rather than 4.2%. As in October, it is true that the IMF is particularly concerned about the situation of the euro area is expected to experience an overall second year of recession with a GDP decline of 0.2%. This poor performance is primarily due to the recession in the countries of southern Europe. As noted by the funds in these countries’ activity was more depressed than expected. ” And under these conditions, the economic heart of the country has been affected area. France is thus credited to the current year, a meager increase of 0.3% of its GDP, making Germany little better with 0.6%. For multilateral institution, several factors are at the origin of this depression. On the one hand, the decline in interest rates paid by the Member States has not passed on the borrowing requirements of the private sector. On the other hand, the Fund regret the continuing uncertainty surrounding the resolution of the European crisis. Clearly, the decisions taken at the European political level (union bank implementation of MES and buybacks of debt by the European Central Bank …) slow to materialize on a practical level.
The American situation is more favorable. Growth is expected to average 2% this year before to rise to 3% in 2014. The lull observed on financial markets and the housing market downturn should encourage U.S. consumer spending in the coming months. This trend is however conditional upon an agreement between congressional Republicans and Democrats to avoid a drastic reduction and some automatic spending. The IMF is optimistic for growth in emerging markets expected to average 5.5% this year. Even if the lack of activity observed in industrialized countries would weigh on business performance

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January 24th, 2013 at 3:19 am

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DAVOS

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Five years after the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, the world is there another way to disaster? Do not push much Axel Weber (pictured), Chairman of UBS and former President of the Bundesbank, to ring the alarm. “Central banks bought time, but they have only postpone the problem,” he complains.
The “hawk” as opposed to “short-term solutions” which have been used central banks in recent years to ease the crisis fears that the world goes to disaster. “The environment [financial] will become more dangerous … And it is the future generations who will pay. We are compromising their chance to live better than us. ”
This view is clearly not shared by all banks. Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan Chase, the U.S. bank which has generated more than $ 20 billion in profits, believes that the financial industry has changed considerably, cleaned its balance sheet and has doubled its equity. “For five years, we paid 7,000 billion to the economy. Who is going to complain? ‘
More or better finance?

Should further regulate finance? When questioned, the public Davos, unsurprisingly, responded largely not. What annoys somewhat Zhu Min (photo), the number two of the International Monetary Fund. “The financial sector too heavy, it represents two-thirds of GDP of developed countries,” he said, not really specify what should be done to correct this. In addition, the “shadow banking”, that is to say financial activities that fall outside the banking regulators – investment funds, hedge funds, money market funds, etc.. – Developed gradually as finance was more controlled. Finally, Zhu Min says, “financial products are too complicated.”
Better regulate the finance, even Jamie Dimon agrees. “But if the right to adopt rules. “He cites this example instructive:” The financial crisis date five years ago and we still do not have new rules for mortgages. ‘
Paul Singer, head of hedge fund Elliott remembers his side as the U.S. Dodd-Frank, should better regulate finance, was adopted before Congress has completed its analysis of the financial crisis and its consequences. “As a result, we adopted texts very imperfect.”
Illusion global standards

In insurance, “it is eleven years since we speak of the new Solvency II rules,” said Tidjane (photo), the boss of British insurance group Prudential. These rules are intended to strengthen the financial soundness of insurers, but their relevance is strongly doubted by large global players. “If these rules were adopted, insurers would have an incentive not to invest in bank capital. However, we were the first bank shareholders which is said also that their capital must be strengthened … ”
Philosopher, the Franco-Ivorian boss warns against the illusion of wanting to implement “global standards”. “Emerging countries have other priorities and they have not experienced the same crisis. They watch these debates with western round eyes, “he said. As for the next financial crisis, “yes it will happen. There are always crises … What is needed is to prepare to minimize the consequences. “

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January 23rd, 2013 at 11:08 pm

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JAPECO

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Denying the economic realities and mathematical economics minister Akira Amari said the Japanese government plans to halve in three years the ratio of debt to GDP …

After claiming last night, they had managed to get the central bank considerable easing of monetary policy, the Japanese authorities have suddenly changed their rhetoric and said they would now be able to tackle the country’s debt phenomenal . Denying all economic realities and especially the main mathematical rules, the Minister of Economy, Akira Amari, has said, without a smile, the central government plans to halve in three years the ratio of debt to GDP. According to the project, the ratio of the fiscal year 2015 would be less than half that observed in 2010. It was then more than 110%. It does not, however, bring the primary budget (before debt service) to balance the country before 2020. And the Prime Minister promised him, at the same time, pushing government spending to boost the recovery of the activity. Few analysts were surprised this morning in notes to their customers, the strangeness of these equations.

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January 23rd, 2013 at 5:22 pm

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BOJ

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As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has endorsed, Tuesday, Jan. 22, a plan for unlimited purchases of assets from 2014 and doubled its inflation target of 2%. Acting under pressure from the newly elected government of Shinzo Abe (Conservative), yet the institution is statutorily independent.

The BoJ is not the first to put “orders” of the executive of the country or its monetary zone. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Tuesday called on the People’s Bank of China to support the second world economy, which last year recorded its lowest growth in thirteen years. In Hungary, the Conservative Prime Minister Viktor Orban seeks to appoint a loyal lieutenant at the head of the Hungarian National Bank, able to rotate the printing.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England, and more recently the European Central Bank (ECB) responded positively to the requisites recovery, less obvious, of course. But it is to redress the economic growth at half the Frankfurt institution has agreed to make concessions in the first place, with a gradual decline in interest rates, and get out the heavy artillery in a second time, with programs unconventional asset purchases.

CRITERIA FOR TAYLOR

“Originally, monetary policy is determined by a law known as Taylor (1993), awarding two criteria coefficients, which are inflation on the one hand and growth on the other hand,” said Eric Heyer, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conditions. The particularity of the ECB is to always have the maximum coefficient attributed to inflation. “Which is not really a problem today in the euro area,” said Mr. Heyer. The prices stood at 2.2% in December.

This is not the case of the Fed, which has to fight on several fronts. “The statutes of the Fed are clear: the central bank must ensure the highest level of employment, price stability and interest rates low long-term. Before the ‘fist on the table, Paul Volker appointed to the Federal Reserve in 1979, the U.S. central bank was mainly concerned with growth, “said Jean-Louis Mourier, the investment company Aurel BGC.

This is not the case of the Bank of England in the early 1990s, left, under pressure from the markets, the pound to depreciate in order to restart the economy. She has since joined the price control more clearly within its mandate.

And this is not the case in Japan, where the issue of price controls has monopolized the monetary debate because, for fifteen years, the country is experiencing economic scourge against which the central bank can do little thing deflation, that is to say the lower prices.

In theory, the mechanics are simple: to fight against rising prices, increase interest rates and make it more expensive cash. Conversely, to fight against falling prices must lower rates. But even lowering rates as much as possible, the real interest rate (the central bank of those less inflation, which is negative) increased.

CURRENCY WAR

Another problem is whether an intervention such as the BoJ drags the currency on the foreign exchange market and makes exports more competitive, it can revive fears of retaliation trading partners. Major economies of the world are on the verge of falling into a “currency war”, has also declared the vice president of the Central Bank of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev.

It is true that the country called “emerging”, such as Russia, whose growth and the unemployment rate are the envy of the developed countries will not resort to such plans unconventional as it may increase inflation, which is usually the problem of overheating economies.

“Abe bet on the fact that monetary policy can influence inflation. (…) Or, in reality, the sole purpose of this very expansionary monetary policy is to depreciate the yen it? Target not blameless while one out of deflation is “questioned their side analysts at Natixis.

Because the fundamental point stressed by many economists and officials is the importance of central bank independence. “The independence of central banks and their narrow mandate were not granted without reason. It was a lesson of the 1970s and early 1980s – a time when many countries had inflation rates in double digits “Jens Weidmann said on Monday, the president of the Bundesbank, the German central bank. A longer term consequence “unwanted or” a loss of independence of central banks in the world “could be a greater politicization of exchange rates,” he further warned.

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January 23rd, 2013 at 3:51 am

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WEF

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In times of crisis, the economy becomes very political. This year, a record number of 50 heads of state and government will come to the World Economic Forum (WEF in English), which opened in Davos Wednesday morning for five days. More than 1,500 business leaders, 200 ministers and officials, crowds of academics, NGO leaders, hundreds of journalists will also travel to the ski resort of Graubünden in Switzerland. Klaus Schwab, founder of the Forum who directs another forty-two years after the first edition, with his team chose to reflect the approximately 2,500 participants around the theme “The dynamism resilient.”
A theme that also goes well with officials from emerging economies booming as those developed countries who are trying to find the path of growth while protecting it from bumps. “Even if we solve the financial crisis, there will be others behind,” said Klaus Schwab. The global confidence index, prepared by the WEF, which suggests a horizon emerges. The employers surveyed by PwC are still very cautious for their business, more than last year.
Standardization interrupted
But all rulers will not come. For the first time in thirty years, China will not be represented at the highest level, because of elected officials but not yet in place. Side the United States, any member of the Obama administration will travel, the government team is being renewed. On the European side, “the leaders of three of the four largest countries will be there,” said Klaus Schwab. Fancy way of saying that if Germany’s Angela Merkel, Italy’s Mario Monti (which will be the prestigious opening session) and Britain’s David Cameron will attend, nor François Hollande nor Jean-Marc Ayrault saw fit to participate . Standardization which had begun to engage with the previous team (François Fillon came in 2008, Nicolas Sarkozy in 2010 and 2011) is interrupted. This is probably a sign that still smells like sulfur Davos for the French Socialists, although François Mitterrand came … in 1976. Government side, only two ministers will – Pierre Moscovici (Economics), Flower Pellerin (SMEs, innovation and the digital economy). Deputy Secretary General of the Elysee, Emmanuel Macron, however, will also present, as well as the Governor of the Banque de France Christian Noyer. French companies side however, the World Economic Forum is a classic appointment with regulars like Carlos Ghosn (Renault), Maurice Lévy (Publicis), Christophe de Margerie (Total), Bernard Charles (Dassault Systèmes) or Laurence Parisot ( MEDEF). Will also be in Davos Luc Oursel (Areva), Ben Verwaayen (Alcatel-Lucent), the heads of three major banks, Tom Enders (EADS) and Chris Viehbacher (Sanofi). Not to mention the French overseas that are Pascal Lamy (WTO) and Christine Lagarde (IMF). But at Davos, it’s not just business.

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January 23rd, 2013 at 3:38 am

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